N.Y. weather: Labor Day weekend forecast with potentially severe thunderstorms (2024)

FAQs

What month has the worst thunderstorms? ›

While severe thunderstorms can occur any month of the year, the peak Severe Weather Season is during the spring months of March, April, and May.

The Short Answer: A seven-day forecast can accurately predict the weather about 80 percent of the time and a five-day forecast can accurately predict the weather approximately 90 percent of the time. However, a 10-day—or longer—forecast is only right about half the time.

When are thunderstorms most likely? Thunderstorms are most likely in the spring and summer months and during the afternoon and evening hours, but they can occur year-round and at all hours. Along the Gulf Coast and across the southeastern and western states, most thunderstorms occur during the afternoon.

Satellites are critical in short-term forecasting. Satellite images can give an early indication of a developing thunderstorm by showing where cumulus clouds are forming. Cumulus clouds grow rapidly into cumulonimbus clouds if conditions are right, and you can track their growth using satellite images.

Globally speaking, the most lightning strikes occur on average in the afternoon between 12 noon and 6 p.m. In the northern hemisphere, the highest number of lightning strikes is recorded between June and August, and in the southern hemisphere between December and February.

With an annual average of 89 thunderstorms, Fort Myers, Florida, is the thunderstorm capital of the U.S. And that's not some climatic anomaly, either.

When You See Lightning, Count The Time Until You Hear Thunder. If That Is 30 Seconds Or Less, The Thunderstorm Is Close Enough To Be Dangerous – Seek Shelter (if you can't see the lightning, just hearing the thunder is a good back-up rule). Wait 30 Minutes Or More After The Lightning Flash Before Leaving Shelter.

Thunderstorms affect relatively small areas when compared with hurricanes and winter storms. The typical thunderstorm is 15 miles in diameter and lasts an average of 30 minutes. Nearly 1,800 thunderstorms are occurring at any moment around the world.

If you count the number of seconds between the flash of lightning and the sound of thunder, and then divide by 5, you'll get the distance in miles to the lightning: 5 seconds = 1 mile, 15 seconds = 3 miles, 0 seconds = very close. Keep in mind that you should be in a safe place while counting.

Avoid plumbing: Metal plumbing and the water inside are both very good conductors of electricity. Therefore, do not wash your hands or dishes, take a shower or bath, do laundry, etc. during a thunderstorm.

What is the most violent stage of a thunderstorm? ›

The mature stage is the is the most dangerous stage and the most likely time for hail, heavy rain, frequent lightning, strong winds, and tornadoes.

Severe storms also tend to have these characteristics over ordinary thunderstorms: higher CAPE, drier air in the middle levels of the atmosphere (convective instability), better moisture convergence, baroclinic atmosphere, and more powerful lift.

June leads all months with seven thunderstorm days, closely followed by July and August, each with six and May with five. April and September typically log four, March and October two, November one and the winter months of December, January and February average less than one.

There are some things some people can apparently pick up on. Change in air pressure or moisture, ULF waves, electrostatic charge in the air, the way the air before a storm smells even. It's often more intuition than exact science and certain signs seems to happen more frequently to people with certain conditions.

Thunderstorms are most likely to happen in the spring and summer months and during the afternoon and evening hours but can occur year-round and at all hours.

Tornado outbreaks are probably the weather event most often associated with spring. Tornado activity in the Lower 48 increases in March before peaking in April, May and June. Those are the core months for tornadoes, but they can occur at other times during the year.

Worldwide, a season's climatological peak activity takes place in late summer, when the difference between air temperature and sea surface temperatures is the greatest. Peak activity in an Atlantic hurricane season happens from late August through September, with a midpoint on September 10.

Areas over west central Florida experience more thunderstorms per year on average than any other location in the U.S. with > 100 per year (See graph above). Key West averages 64 days per year with thunderstorms with August averaging 14 and July 13 as the 2 most active months for thunderstorms in the Keys.